2023


Demographics 2023 Workshop
 
Focusing on Population Health State and Mortality in the Covid-19 era
 
Quantitative Methodologies
 
6 - 9 June 2023 Heraklion, Crete, Greece

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Dear Colleagues,

Last months, many colleagues asked for a Platform-Template to estimate-calculate the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) directly from the Life Tables of the Human Mortality Database (HMD).

We are happy to present the best and simplest as of today Template in Excel format by providing the HLE and the Healthy Life Years Lost (HLYL) by expanding the HMD Life Table directly from the provided data.

The estimate of HLE from well-organized data sets like that from HMD assures well formatted results for all the time period of data collected. For several countries, the estimates are close to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) as HALE estimates. Our method estimates the HLE as far as Life Table Data are available, contrary to HALE estimates covering only the last 20-30 years. Instead, we estimate the HLE from 1751 to today for Sweden following to HMD data sets and accordingly for the other countries included in HMD data.

What we propose is to use our provided extended forms for HMD Life Tables. Our Template is easily applied to all the data sets for a country (males, females and total).

Download the appropriate Excel Template at http://www.asmda.es/demographics2023.html and related presentation from Skiadas-Dimotikalis-2022-Expanding the Life Tables to include the Healthy Life Expectancy. Applications for several countries are also provided at the same web address where is the announcement of the forthcoming international workshop.

With my best regards,

Christos H Skiadas

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Bibliography

Jagger, C., Van Oyen, H., & Robine, J.-M. (2014). Health expectancy calculation by the Sullivan method: A practical guide. Newcastle upon Tyne: Institute for Ageing, Newcastle University.

Skiadas, C.H. and Skiadas, C. (2018a). The Health-Mortality Approach in Estimating the Healthy
Life Years Lost Compared to the Global Burden of Disease Studies and Applications in World,
USA and Japan. In Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods.
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 45, Springer, Chum,
Switzerland, pp 67-124.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2_4

Skiadas, C.H. and Skiadas, C. (2018b). Demography and Health Issues: Population Aging,
Mortality and Data Analysis. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population
Analysis 46. Springer, Chum, Switzerland.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5

Skiadas C.H., Skiadas C. (2020a). Relation of the Weibull Shape Parameter with the Healthy Life
Years Lost Estimates: Analytical Derivation and Estimation from an Extended Life Table. In:
Skiadas C.H., Skiadas C. (eds) Demography of Population Health, Aging and Health Expenditures.
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 50. Springer, Cham.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44695-6_2

Skiadas C.H., Skiadas C. (2020b). Direct Healthy Life Expectancy Estimates from Life Tables
with a Sullivan Extension. Bridging the Gap Between HALE and Eurostat Estimates. In: Skiadas
C.H., Skiadas C. (eds) Demography of Population Health, Aging and Health Expenditures. The
Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 50. Springer, Cham.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44695-6_3

Skiadas C. H., Skiadas C. (2020c). How the unsolved problem of finding the Healthy Life
Expectancy (HLE) in the far past was resolved: The case of Sweden (1751-2016) with forecasts to
2060 and comparisons with HALE.
https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/akf8v

Sullivan, D. F. (1971). "A single index of mortality and morbidity." Health Services Mental Health
Administration Health Reports 86: 347-354.

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Download the Healthy Life Expectancy Template in zip format for Excel

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Download the Healthy Life Expectancy calculation file in Excel
Figure from a 4-parameter mortality model. The best estimates achieved from a 4-parameter model
Healthy Life Years Lost Estimates
Related Excel Programs (Enable the Solver option)

Distribution of Health Expenditure in AUSTRIA
From a recent study to be presented in the Conference
Related work for 20 Countries is in progress 
There are 2 options for downloading the Excel program for estimating the above picture with all the estimation details. One is based on the Solver facilities in Excel and the second without the Solver. Both programs estimate the Population Health State and the Deterioration stage in different age years thus providing a strong methodology for deciding the retirement ages.

The health state curve for USA females in 2010 is illustrated by the heavy magenta line. The corresponding survival curve for the related case is presented by the cyan curve (σ=0.068814). The blue curve expresses the death distribution. The light curves with various colors are the stochastic paths from the related simulation. The dashed curves express the confidence intervals. (source, C. H. Skiadas, 2016)


The rapid improvements last 60 years in science and especially in medicine, biology and the related fields gave rise to better conditions of life leading to a higher life span. Improvement also came in the way we cope with the nature and the natural phenomena. Demography and demographic analysis and research grow rapidly along with the other scientific fields and especially the quantitative branches of mathematics, statistics and more recently the computing methods and techniques. The new methods and techniques along with the classical qualitative aspects of demography tend to straighten the theoretical approaches and lead to various applications in the same or in other scientific fields including social and economic sciences, insurance and finance thus improving the social welfare of the countries. The research now is more interdisciplinary and the aim of the Workshop on Demographics 2021 is to attract people from the academia and practice thus closing the gap between theory and applications. Presentations expressing the state-of-the art will be organized.


The Workshop is organized under the umbrella of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society - ASMDA International, and it is aimed to invite people      in improving demography and the related fields of analysis and research including life and physical sciences as well as medical and technical information. We strongly support interdisciplinary studies and the improvement of the analytic tools and research methods. Both theoretical and practical submissions are accepted.

 

Abstract and Paper submissions are welcomed by using this website tools.

Please submit your abstract by December 20, 2022 .


Submit Abstracts from the webpage or by email to secretariat@asmda.com


Papers in due, March 30, 2023

 

 

More information at secretariat@asmda.com 


Population Health State and Mortality Theory and Applications

 

Main Topics

 

1. Human population and mortality data and databases
2. Models and modeling of human mortality, longevity and life expectancy
3. Gompertz, Gompertz-Makeham, Weibull, Brass, Heligman and Pollard, Lee and Carter
4. Stochastic models, First exit time models of Human mortality
5. Methods and tools for fitting models
6. Nonlinear regression, Nonlinear regression packquages, Nonlinear regression with Excel
7. Life expectancy limits
8. Life expectancy forecasts
9. Human organism deterioration and application in life expectancy
10. Health state of a population: definition, modeling and estimates
11. The health state function
12. Healthy life expectancy estimates
13. Healthy life expectancy estimates from death and population data
14. Applications and comparisons of healthy life expectancy estimates
15. Longevity, theory and estimates

16. Human Development Stages Estimates

17. Miscellaneous

18. Other demographic analysis and research topics

Health State in UK. Theory and Applications

Health State in France. Theory and Applications

The Demographic and Human Development Indicators for 34 Countries are presented below.

More information at: www.cmsim.net 
Health State in USA: Theory and Applications