Demographics 2013 Workshop

The 3rd Demographics2014 Workshop, Lisbon Portugal
see at:

Demographics2014 Workshop, Lisbon Portugal

11-14 June, 2014


Demographics 2013 Workshop
Focusing on Population Health State and Mortality Estimates
25 - 28 June 2013 Mataró (Barcelona) Spain

To register please complete the ASMDA registration form

The rapid improvements last 60 years in science and especially in medicine, biology and the related fields gave rise to better conditions of life leading to a higher life span. Improvement also came in the way we cope with the nature and the natural phenomena. Demography and demographic analysis and research grow rapidly along with the other scientific fields and especially the quantitative branches of mathematics, statistics and more recently the computing methods and techniques. The new methods and techniques along with the classical qualitative aspects of demography tend to straighten the theoretical approaches and lead to various applications in the same or in other scientific fields including social and economic sciences, insurance and finance thus improving the social welfare of the countries. The research now is more interdisciplinary and the aim of the Workshop on Demographics 2013 is to attract people from the academia and practice thus closing the gap between theory and applications. Presentations expressing the state-of-the art will be organised.

The Workshop is organized under the umbrella of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society - ASMDA International, and it is aimed to gather people interested in improving demography and the related fields of analysis and research including life and physical sciences as well as medical and technical information. We strongly support interdisciplinary studies and the improvement of the analytic tools and research methods. Both theoretical and practical submissions are accepted.


Abstract and Paper submissions are welcomed by using this website tools.

Please submit your abstract by March 31, 2013.

The deadline for full papers is March 31, 2013


After the deadline submissions should be addressed to the Conference Committee as late registration at


More information at or from the workshop chair:

Christos H Skiadas


Population Health State and Mortality Theory and Applications


Main Topics


1. Human population and mortality data and databases
2. Models and modeling of human mortality, longevity and life expectancy
3. Gompertz, Gompertz-Makeham, Weibull, Brass, Heligman and Pollard, Lee and Carter
4. Stochastic models, First exit time models of Human mortality
5. Methods and tools for fitting models
6. Nonlinear regression, Nonlinear regression pacquages, Nonlinear regression with Excel
7. Life expectancy limits
8. Life expectancy forecasts
9. Human organism deterioration and application in life expectancy
10. Health state of a population: definition, modeling and estimates
11. The health state function
12. Healthy life expectancy estimates from survey data
13. Healthy life expectancy estimates from death and population data
14. Applications and comparisons of healthy life expectancy estimates
15. Longevity, theory and estimates

16. Human Development Stages Estimates

17. Miscellaneous

18. Other demographic analysis and research topics

Lisbon Portugal


Plenary Lectures of



Leonid Gavrilov

Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago, USA

Biodemography of mortality and longevity


Steven Haberman
Cass Business School (Dean)
City University London, UK

Jean-Marie Robine
Head of the research team Biodemography of Longevity and Vitality, INSERM U710, Montpellier, France
Health expectancies in the European Union, 2005-2011



Special Session

Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S
New approaches to study historical evolution of mortality (with implications for forecasting)


Health State Modeling Tutorial


Christos H Skiadas

Technical University of Crete, Greece


Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A.
Mortality measurement and modelling at advanced ages  

Steps of Human Development

The Health State Function of a Population

The Health State Function of a Population

(Second Edition, 2013, Hardcover, with new material and color figures)

Order from  or from Amazon  89.90 US $, Hardcover or e-Book)


This book will inspire colleagues in applying, developing and expanding the theoretical and practical issues related to the health state of the population and to improve forecasts related to the life expectancy and the healthy life span.


The Second Edition of the book includes four more chapters presenting very important theoretical and applied work. The book deals with the theory related to the health state of a population and the introduced health state function. The book presents and applies the stochastic modeling techniques and the first exit time theory in demography along with the healthy life expectancy estimates and a derivation and classification of the human development stages. The data fitting techniques and the related programs are also presented. Many new and old terms are explored and quantitatively estimated especially the health state or the “vitality” of a population, the Deterioration and the related function and the Healthy Life Expectancy.
A method for estimating the total loss of healthy life years with applications and comparisons for the healthy life expectancy in UK, Scotland, Sweden, and in the US States is added. A new Quantitative Method for Estimating the Human Development Stages based on the Health State Function Theory and the Resulting Deterioration Process is also included.
The book is addressed to demographers, actuaries, statisticians, applied mathematicians, sociologists, psychologists, economists, health scientists, biologists, policy makers and scientists and practitioners of very many fields. Attention was given to prepare the material for readers from multidisciplinary fields thus including the appropriate formulas and mathematical typos along with many applications from computer programs in Excel.
Read this book and share with us a fascinating exploration on life table data and the underlying information on human health state.

Health State Function, model fitting, stochastic paths and stochastic simulation for Greece, males (1992)
Health State Function, model fitting, stochastic paths and stochastic simulation for Greece, males (1992)